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10 October 2008
[Federal Register: October 10, 2008 (Volume 73, Number 198)]
[Notices]
[Page 60359-60362]
From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]
[DOCID:fr10oc08-133]
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MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION
[MCC FR 08-15]
Report on the Criteria and Methodology for Determining the
Eligibility of Candidate Countries for Millennium Challenge Account
Assistance in Fiscal Year 2009
AGENCY: Millennium Challenge Corporation.
ACTION: Notice.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: This report to Congress is provided in accordance with section
608(b) of the Millennium Challenge Act of 2003, 22 U.S.C.A. 7701,
7707(b) (the ``Act'').
Dated: October 7, 2008.
Henry Pitney,
(Acting) Vice President and General Counsel, Millennium Challenge
Corporation.
Report on the Criteria and Methodology for Determining the Eligibility
of Candidate Countries for Millennium Challenge Account Assistance in
Fiscal Year 2009 Summary
This report to Congress is provided in accordance with section
608(b) of the Millennium Challenge Act of 2003, 22 U.S.C.A. 7701,
7707(b) (the Act).
The Act authorizes the provision of Millennium Challenge Account
(MCA) assistance to countries that enter into compacts with the United
States to support policies and programs that advance the prospects of
such countries achieving lasting economic growth and poverty reduction.
The Act requires the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) to take a
number of steps in determining the countries that, based on their
demonstrated commitment to just and democratic governance, economic
freedom and investing in their people, and the opportunity to reduce
poverty and generate economic growth in the country, will be eligible
for MCA assistance during fiscal year 2009 (FY09). These steps include
the submission of reports to the congressional committees specified in
the Act and the publication of notices in the Federal Register that
identify:
1. The countries that are ``candidate countries'' for MCA
assistance during FY09 based on their per-capita income levels and
their eligibility to receive assistance under U.S. law, and countries
that would be candidate countries but for specified legal prohibitions
on assistance (section 608(a) of the Act);
2. The criteria and methodology that the Board of Directors of MCC
(the Board) will use to measure and evaluate the relative policy
performance of the candidate countries consistent with the requirements
of section 607 of the Act in order to select ``MCA eligible countries''
from among the ``candidate countries'' (section 608(b) of the Act); and
3. The list of countries determined by the Board to be ``MCA
eligible countries'' for FY09, with justification for eligibility
determination and selection for compact negotiation, including which of
the MCA eligible countries the Board will seek to enter into MCA
compacts (section 608(d) of the Act).
This report sets out the criteria and methodology to be applied in
determining eligibility for new partner countries for FY09 MCA
assistance.
The Criteria and Methodology for FY09
MCC reviews all of its indicators and methodology annually to
ensure that the best measures are being used and, from time to time,
recommends changes or refinements if MCC identifies better
methodologies, better indicators, or improved sources of data. MCC
takes into account public comments received on the previous year's
criteria and methodology and consults with a broad range of experts in
the development community and within the U.S. Government.
MCC recommends no changes to the selection criteria and methodology
for this fiscal year.
Potential Future Changes
Since FY07, MCC has pursued research and consultation to explore
the possibility of adopting a new education indicator in the Investing
in People category. However, MCC was unable to identify an indicator
that would significantly strengthen the selection criteria in FY09. MCC
will continue to explore potential measures. Over the last fifteen
years, much attention has been focused on enrolling and keeping more
children in school, but not necessarily on enhancing the quality of
education. With the support of the World Bank, USAID, UNESCO, the Basic
Education Coalition, and others, efforts are currently underway to
develop cross-country measures of learning outcomes, educational
quality, and governments' commitment to improving educational quality.
However, these efforts are still under development and there are
currently no education quality indicators that are viable for MCC
purposes at this time. In assessing new indicators, MCC favors those
that: (1) Are developed by an independent third party; (2) utilize
objective and high quality data that rely upon an analytically rigorous
methodology; (3) are publicly available; (4) have broad country
coverage; (5) are comparable across countries; (6) have a clear
theoretical or empirical link to economic growth and poverty reduction;
(7) are policy linked (i.e., measure factors that governments can
influence within a two to three year horizon); and (8) have broad
consistency in results from year to year.
Many of MCC's candidate countries in the lower middle income
category have realized substantial success in achieving high levels of
performance on select Investing in People indicators. MCC will explore
options for alternative measures of an Investing in People policy
framework that do a better job of distinguishing among high performers
to incorporate in future fiscal years for the lower middle income
countries.
Several of MCC's early compacts are due to conclude within the next
two years. MCC will review whether the selection criteria and
methodology should be modified when applied to selecting a country as
eligible for a second compact.
Criteria and Methodology
The Board will select eligible countries based on the following,
among
[[Page 60360]]
other factors: (1) Their overall performance in relation to their
income-level peers in three broad policy categories--Ruling Justly,
Encouraging Economic Freedom, and Investing in People; (2) the
opportunity to reduce poverty and generate economic growth. Section 607
of the Act requires that the Board's determination of eligibility be
based ``to the maximum extent possible, upon objective and quantifiable
indicators of a country's demonstrated commitment'' to the criteria set
out in the Act. For FY09, there will be two groups of candidate
countries--low income countries and lower middle income countries. Low
income candidate countries refer to those countries that have a per
capita income equal to or less than $1,785 and are not ineligible to
receive United States economic assistance under part I of the Foreign
Assistance Act of 1961 by reason of the application of any provision of
the Foreign Assistance Act or any other provision of law. Lower middle
income candidate countries are those that have a per capita income
between $1,786 and $3,705 and are not ineligible to receive United
States economic assistance.
The Board will make use of seventeen indicators to assess policy
performance of individual countries (specific definitions of the
indicators and their sources are set out in annex A). These indicators
are grouped for purposes of the FY09 assessment methodology under the
three policy categories listed below.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Encouraging economic
Ruling justly freedom Investing in people
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Civil Liberties.......... 1. Inflation........ 1. Public
Expenditure on
Health.
2. Political Rights......... 2. Fiscal Policy.... 2. Public
Expenditure on
Primary Education.
3. Voice and Accountability. 3. Business Start-Up 3. Immunization
Rates (DPT3 and
Measles).
4. Government Effectiveness. 4. Trade Policy..... 4. Girls' Primary
Education
Completion.
5. Rule of Law.............. 5. Regulatory 5. Natural Resource
Quality. Management.
6. Control of Corruption.... 6. Land Rights and
Access.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
In making its determination of eligibility with respect to a
particular candidate country, the Board will consider whether a country
performs above the median in relation to its peers on at least half of
the indicators in the Ruling Justly and Economic Freedom categories,
above the median on at least three of the five indicators in the
Investing in People category, and above the median on the Control of
Corruption indicator. One exception to this methodology is that the
median is not used for the Inflation indicator. Instead, to pass the
Inflation indicator a country's inflation rate needs to be under a
fixed ceiling of 15 percent. The Board will also take into
consideration whether a country performs substantially below the median
on any indicator (i.e., in the bottom 25th percentile) and has not
taken appropriate measures to address this shortcoming. The indicator
methodology will be the predominant basis for determining which
countries will be eligible for MCA assistance. In addition, the Board
may exercise discretion in evaluating performance on the indicators and
determining a final list of eligible countries.
Where necessary, the Board may also take into account other
quantitative and qualitative information (supplemental information) to
determine whether a country performed satisfactorily in relation to its
peers in a given category. There are elements of the criteria set out
in the Act for which there is either limited quantitative information
(e.g., rights of people with disabilities) or no well-developed
performance indicator. Until such data and/or indicators are developed,
the Board may rely on additional data and qualitative information to
assess policy performance. The Board may also consider whether any
adjustments should be made for data gaps, lags, trends, or other
weaknesses in particular indicators. For example, the State Department
Human Rights Report contains qualitative information to make an
assessment on a variety of criteria outlined by Congress, such as the
rights of people with disabilities, the treatment of women and
children, workers rights, and human rights. Similarly, as additional
information in the area of corruption, the Board may consider how a
country scores on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions
Index and the Global Integrity Index, as well as on the defined
indicator.
Compact eligible partners are expected to seek to maintain and
improve policy performance. MCC recognizes that partner countries may
not meet the formal eligibility criteria from time to time due to a
number of factors, such as changes in the peer-group median; graduation
into a new income category (e.g., from low income to lower middle
income); numerical declines that are within the margin of error; slight
declines in policy performance; revisions or corrections of data; the
introduction of new sub-data sources; or changes in the indicators used
to measure performance. None of these factors alone warrants suspension
or termination of eligibility and/or assistance. Countries that
demonstrate a significant policy reversal can face a warning,
suspension, or termination of eligibility and/or assistance. According
to MCC's authorizing legislation, ``[a]fter consultation with the
Board, the Chief Executive Officer may suspend or terminate assistance
in whole or in part for a country or entity * * * if * * * the country
or entity has engaged in a pattern of actions inconsistent with the
criteria used to determine the eligibility of the country or entity * *
*.'' Given data lags, this pattern of behavior need not be captured in
the indicators for MCC to take action. [See MCC's Policy on Suspension
and Termination]
As provided in the Act, following the determination of eligible
countries, the Chief Executive Officer's Report to Congress will set
out the list of eligible countries, identify with which of those
countries MCC will seek to enter into compact negotiations, and include
a justification for such eligibility determinations and selections for
compact negotiation.
Relationship to Legislative Criteria
Within each policy category, the Act sets out a number of specific
selection criteria. As indicated above, a set of objective and
quantifiable policy indicators is used to establish eligibility for MCA
assistance and measure the relative performance by candidate countries
against these criteria. The Board's approach to determining eligibility
ensures that performance against each of these criteria is assessed by
at least one of the seventeen objective indicators. Most are addressed
by multiple indicators. The specific indicators used to measure each of
the criteria set out in the Act are listed below.
Section 607(b)(1): Just and democratic governance, including a
demonstrated commitment to:
[[Page 60361]]
(a) Promote political pluralism, equality and the rule of law;
Indicators--Political Rights, Civil Liberties, Voice and
Accountability, and Rule of Law
(b) Respect human and civil rights, including the rights of people
with disabilities;
Indicators--Political Rights, Civil Liberties, and Voice and
Accountability
(c) Protect private property rights;
Indicators--Civil Liberties, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Land
Rights and Access
(d) Encourage transparency and accountability of government; and
Indicators--Political Rights, Civil Liberties, Voice and
Accountability, Control of Corruption, Rule of Law, and Government
Effectiveness
(e) Combat corruption;
Indicators--Civil Liberties, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption
Section 607(b)(2): Economic freedom, including a demonstrated
commitment to economic policies that:
(a) Encourage citizens and firms to participate in global trade and
international capital markets;
Indicators--Fiscal Policy, Inflation, Trade Policy, Business Start-Up,
and Regulatory Quality
(b) Promote private sector growth and the sustainable management of
natural resources;
Indicators--Inflation, Business Start-Up, Fiscal Policy, Land Rights
and Access, Natural
(c) Resource Management, and Regulatory Quality strengthen market
forces in the economy; and
Indicators--Fiscal Policy, Inflation, Trade Policy, Business Start-Up,
Land Rights and Access, and Regulatory Quality
(d) Respect worker rights, including the right to form labor
unions;
Indicators--Civil Liberties and Voice and Accountability
Section 607(b)(3): Investments in the people of such country,
particularly women and children, including programs that (A) promote
broad-based primary education and (B) strengthen and build capacity to
provide quality public health and reduce child mortality.
Indicators--Girls' Primary Education Completion, Public Expenditure on
Primary Education, Immunization Rates, Public Expenditure on Health,
and Natural Resource Management
Where necessary the Board will also draw on supplemental data and
qualitative information, including the State Department's Human Rights
Report, Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, and
the Global Integrity Index.
Annex A to Report: Indicator Definitions
The following 17 indicators will be used to measure candidate
countries' demonstrated commitment to the criteria found in section
607(b) of the Act. The indicators are intended to assess the degree to
which the political and economic conditions in a country serve to
promote broad-based sustainable economic growth and reduction of
poverty; and thus provide a sound environment for the use of MCA funds.
The indicators are not goals in themselves; rather they measure
policies that are linked to broad-based sustainable economic growth.
The indicators were selected based on their relationship to economic
growth and poverty reduction, the number of countries they cover, their
transparency and availability, and their relative soundness and
objectivity. Where possible, the indicators are developed by
independent sources.
Ruling Justly
1. Civil Liberties: A panel of independent experts rates countries
on: Freedom of expression; association and organizational rights; rule
of law and human rights; and personal autonomy and economic rights.
Source: Freedom House.
2. Political Rights: A panel of independent experts rates countries
on: The prevalence of free and fair elections of officials with real
power; the ability of citizens to form political parties that may
compete fairly in elections; freedom from domination by the military,
foreign powers, totalitarian parties, religious hierarchies and
economic oligarchies; and the political rights of minority groups.
Source: Freedom House.
3. Voice and Accountability: An index of surveys that rates
countries on: The ability of institutions to protect civil liberties;
the extent to which citizens of a country are able to participate in
the selection of governments; and the independence of the media.
Source: World Bank Institute.
4. Government Effectiveness: An index of surveys that rates
countries on: The quality of public service provision; civil servants'
competency and independence from political pressures; and the
government's ability to plan and implement sound policies. Source:
World Bank Institute.
5. Rule of Law: An index of surveys that rates countries on: The
extent to which the public has confidence in and abides by the rules of
society; the incidence of violent and nonviolent crime; the
effectiveness, independence, and predictability of the judiciary; and
the enforceability of contracts. Source: World Bank Institute.
6. Control of Corruption: An index of surveys that rates countries
on: The frequency of ``additional payments to get things done;'' the
effects of corruption on the business environment; ``grand corruption''
in the political arena; and the tendency of elites to engage in ``state
capture.'' Source: World Bank Institute.
Encouraging Economic Freedom
1. Inflation: The most recent 12-month change in consumer prices as
reported in the IMF's International Financial Statistics or in another
public forum by the relevant national monetary authorities. Source: The
International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook (WEO) database.
2. Fiscal Policy: The overall budget deficit divided by GDP,
averaged over a three-year period. The data for this measure relies
primarily on IMF country reports with input from U.S. missions in host
countries, or is provided directly by the recipient government where
public IMF data is outdated or unavailable. All data is cross-checked
with the IMF's World Economic Outlook database to try to ensure
consistency across countries and made publicly available. Source:
International Monetary Fund Country Reports, National Governments, and
the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook (WEO)
database.
3. Business Start-Up: An index that rates countries on the time and
cost of complying with all procedures officially required for an
entrepreneur to start up and formally operate an industrial or
commercial business. Source: International Finance Corporation.
4. Trade Policy: A measure of a country's openness to international
trade based on weighted average tariff rates and non-tariff barriers to
trade. Source: The Heritage Foundation.
5. Regulatory Quality: An index of surveys that rates countries on:
The burden of regulations on business; price controls; the government's
role in the economy; foreign investment regulation; and many other
areas. Source: World Bank Institute.
6. Land Rights and Access: An index that rates countries on: The
extent to which the institutional, legal, and market framework provide
secure land tenure and equitable access to land in
[[Page 60362]]
rural areas and the time and cost of property registration in urban and
peri-urban areas. Source: The International Fund for Agricultural
Development (IFAD) and the International Finance Corporation.
Investing in People
1. Public Expenditure on Health: Total expenditures on health by
government at all levels divided by GDP. Source: The World Health
Organization (WHO).
2. Immunization Rates: The average of DPT3 and measles immunization
rates for the most recent year available. Source: The World Health
Organization (WHO).
3. Total Public Expenditure on Primary Education: Total
expenditures on primary education by government at all levels divided
by GDP. Source: The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization (UNESCO) and National Governments.
4. Girls' Primary Completion Rate: The number of female students
enrolled in the last grade of primary education minus repeaters divided
by the population in the relevant age cohort. Source: United Nations
Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).
5. Natural Resource Management: An index made up of four
indicators: Eco-region protection, access to improved water, access to
improved sanitation, and child (ages 1-4) mortality. Source: The Center
for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) and the
Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy (YCLEP).
[FR Doc. E8-24206 Filed 10-9-08; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 9211-03-P